Analytic Memo 4: Targets of ISIS

by Dack Anderson, Lead Security Consultant

Image source: Media from Wix

As part of my academic journey at Pikes Peak State College, I had the opportunity to study ESA4010: Terrorism Threat & Risk Analysis in 2022, a critical course that deepened my understanding of terrorism-related threats, emergency response strategies, and analytical methods. Under the guidance of Professor Woody Byrd, I conducted extensive research using structured assessment models to analyze whether ISIS remains a threat to the United States.

This fourth installment explores the calculated brutality of the Islamic State and how its target selection reveals both ideological intent and strategic adaptation. Emerging from a schism with al-Qa'ida, ISIS reshaped the extremist landscape by unleashing terror not only across the Middle East but around the globe. From government institutions to civilian festivals, from rival sects to fellow Muslims, their targets reflect a doctrine of indiscriminate violence executed with chilling purpose. Through historical case studies and critical analysis, this post exposes how ISIS weaponizes terror as a tool of conquest, contrasting its methods with al-Qa'ida’s, and examining the group’s global influence—from shrine attacks in Pakistan to insurgencies in Mozambique. The piece underscores that defeating such ideology demands more than force—it requires understanding.

Key Findings

The West failed to see the evolution of al-Qa'ida into its new configuration covering the Middle East and North Africa. It was then broadsided by the abrupt map alteration across Syria and Iraq by the ISIS blitzkrieg. Both terrorist organizations have continued to evolve and multiply—and shock (Wright, et al., 2017). ISIS advanced and grew from a breakup with al-Qa'ida, so let's take a closer look at this prolific group's specific targets and the results.

ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL [also known as ISIS, Da'esh, or Da'ish]) has focused on attacking government institutions; military installations, compounds, offices, checkpoints; and civilian personnel and buildings (Mapping Militant Organizations, 2021). It stated in an issue of Rumiyah, its online magazine, recommended targeting holiday parades, political rallies, town festivals, outdoor celebrations (Wright, et al., 2017), and even other Muslims. This would include "apostate" regimes in the Muslim world, especially the Abadi administration in Iraq and the Asad administration in Syria to cleanse the Muslim community of religious minorities and rival terrorist organizations. The Islamic State had a long enemies hit list that included the Iraqi Shi'a, the Hizballah of Lebanon, the Kurdish Yazidis (an Iraqi minority), and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria (an affiliate of al-Qa'ida). In 2017, one of its suicide bombers purposely targeted the women's wing of a shrine of the Sufi (a mystic branch of Islam) in Pakistan, killing 72 people, including 30 children (Glenn, et al., 2019). Because of the intervention in the Iraq and Syria conflict by the U.S. and coalition forces, ISIS began targeting all Westerners, including humanitarian aid workers and news reporters (Bynam, 2015). Since its surfacing, ISIS has announced offshoots and created networks across the globe with acts of terrorism and violence. In 2014, the American administration presented the U.S. Strategy to Counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) with the target of the organization's degradation and destruction through collaborating with regional and international partners (Johnson, 2017). The last major attack was from an ISIS affiliate group called the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISIS-Mozambique) in March/April 2021, where they commandeered Palma, a town in northern Mozambique, for 12 days. They attacked government, military, and civilian personnel and facilities (Mapping Militant Organizations, 2021).

Meaning of Findings

ISIS has a plethora of targets, but not without their reasons. The basic definition of terrorism is "the use or threat of violence to support ideological purposes" (McEntire, 2019). The use of prisoners, non-combatants, and civilians to horrendously demonstrate their dedication and determination to achieve their ideological goals of a "pure form of Islam" with its caliphate is a means to an end in their eyes. Unlike al-Qa'ida, ISIS desires to conquer, and terrorism is part of its war strategy. In the territories the group had controlled at the height of its powers, its members used mass public executions (at times with beheadings), crucifixions, and rape to terrify the communities into compliance. ISIS targets include military, government personnel, civilians, non-Muslims, Muslims, those on the outside, those on the inside, the old, the young, men, women, and children.

Assessment of Findings

"If you remain steadfast, Allah will support you and grant you victory and plant your feet firmly. Know that Paradise is under the shade of the swords." — Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

In the findings, the Islamic State differs vastly from its relatively quiet cousin al-Qa’ida in attempting to reach and hold onto its goals. The worship of violence for violence's sake has the organization being loathed by the global population. But that's not entirely true, as many members continue to join the organization, whether by being in its ranks or loosely affiliated with it. These members appear to want to be part of the "branding" of ISIS to such a degree that they have started implementing beheadings as a tactic, as well as embracing its religious adaptation. An ISIS affiliate attacked a town some 3600 miles away from Baghdad in Mozambique and displaced some 40,000 persons. It’s important to recognize that ISIS’s targeting strategy is both indiscriminate and deliberate. Government officials, military personnel, civilians—no group is spared. Yet each attack serves a calculated purpose: to instill fear, destabilize regions, and command global attention. The brutality may appear chaotic, but it follows a clear ideological logic. Confronting a movement like this requires more than military force—it demands a nuanced understanding of its motivations and methods.

References:

Bynam, D. (2015, April 29). Comparing Al Qaeda and ISIS: Different goals, different targets. The Brookings Institute. Retrieved September 30, 2022, from https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/comparing-al-qaeda-and-isis-different-goals-differen-targets/

Glenn, C., Rowan, M., Caves, J., and Nada, G. (2019, October 28). Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State. The Wilson Center. Retrieved September 18, 2022, from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state

Johnson, C. (2017, July 18). Countering ISIS and Its Effects: Key Issues for Oversight. U.S. Government Accountability Office. Retrieved September 30, 2022, from https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-17-687sp 

Mapping Militant Organizations. (2021, April). The Islamic State. Stanford University. Retrieved September 30, 2022, from https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/islamic-state

McEntire, D. (2019). Introduction to Homeland Security: Understanding Terrorism Prevention and Emergency Management (2nd ed). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Wright, R., Berger, J.M., Braniff, W., Bunzel, C., Bynam, D., Cafarella, J., Gambhir, H., Gartenstein-Ross, D., Hassan, H., Lister, C., McCants, W., Nada, G., Olidort, J., Thurston, A., Watts, C., Wehrey, F., Whiteside, F., Wood, G., Zelin, A., & Zimmerman, K. (2017, January). The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Beyond. United States Institute of Peace & The Wilson Center. Retrieved September 30, 2022, from https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/The-Jihadi-Threat-ISIS-Al-Qaeda-and-Beyond.pdf