Analytic Memo 11: Terror Group Connections of ISIS

Image source: Statea USA on Wikimedia Commons

by Dack Anderson, Lead Security Consultant

As part of my academic journey at Pikes Peak State College, I had the opportunity to study ESA4010: Terrorism Threat & Risk Analysis in 2022, a critical course that deepened my understanding of terrorism-related threats, emergency response strategies, and analytical methods. Under the guidance of Professor Woody Boyd, I conducted extensive research using structured assessment models to analyze whether ISIS remains a threat to the United States.

This eleventh annex explores the Islamic State’s global network of affiliated terror groups, examining how ISIS leverages regional instability, local grievances, and decentralized partnerships to expand its influence. The memo highlights the organization’s strategic shift toward territorial expansion and its persistent threat posture despite diminished focus on Western targets.

Key Findings

According to a 2022 report from the Congressional Research Service, ISIS retains sufficient manpower and resources to sustain low-level insurgency operations in Iraq and Syria. More notably, its global network of affiliates, each with distinct goals, tactics, and leadership structures, has caused more deaths outside its core territory than within it. Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) identifies ISIS activity in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Somalia, Nigeria, and East Asia (particularly the Philippines). A major branch also operates across Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia under the banner of the Khorasan region. Militant groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique have pledged allegiance to ISIS, receiving training, equipment, and strategic guidance in return. These affiliates have embedded themselves in local insurgencies, exploiting weak governance and unresolved grievances. As Zimmerman and Chesnutt (2022) note, this has made them “resilient to counterterrorism operations.” ISIS has increasingly prioritized regional expansion over direct confrontation with the West, capitalizing on economic decline and political instability to entrench its influence.

The Critical Threats Project tabulates the following active ISIS-linked groups:

• Somalia – al Shabaab

• Mozambique – Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), Islamic State in Mozambique (ISM)

• Congo – Islamic State – Central Africa Province (ISCAP)

• Egypt – Islamic State Sinai Province (ISSP)

• Mali – Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS)

• Nigeria – Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP, formerly Boko Haram)

• Afghanistan – Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

• Philippines – ISIS remnants remain active, though local forces have made significant gains

Meaning of Findings

ISIS remains a persistent, flexible, and subversive terrorist organization. It continues to attract like-minded groups across regions plagued by weak governance, drought, famine, and civil unrest. These conditions create fertile ground for ISIS’s ideology and operational expansion. The group’s strategic pivot, from targeting the West to building territorial influence, has proven effective. By embedding itself in local conflicts and offering a vision of stability through its version of an Islamic Caliphate, ISIS has maintained relevance and appeal among disenfranchised populations. This decentralized model allows ISIS to grow without centralized control, enabling affiliates to operate autonomously while adhering to core ideological principles. The result is a resilient network capable of adapting to regional dynamics and sustaining long-term influence.

Assessment of Findings

ISIS remains a relevant and growing threat, as evidenced by its violent and ruthless affiliate groups. The organization has skillfully exploited governance failures and unmet grievances to expand its global footprint. While its current focus may not be on Western targets, its rebuilding efforts suggest that this could change. Western counterterrorism efforts must not become complacent. ISIS’s ability to guide affiliates with philosophies of violence and control continues to attract new recruits and expand its reach. The group’s strategic patience and ideological consistency make it a long-term threat that demands sustained attention.

As seen throughout this analytic series, ISIS thrives where populations are vulnerable and promises of hope can be weaponized. Its terror group connections are not just tactical. They are foundational to its survival and resurgence.

References

Center for International Security and Cooperation. (2021, April). The Islamic State. Retrieved from Stanford University: https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/islamic- state 

Congressional Research Service. (2022, May 10). The Islamic State. Retrieved from In Focus: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10328 

Zimmerman, K., & Chesnutt, K. (2022, September 08). The State of al Qaeda and ISIS Around the World. Retrieved from American Enterprise Institute: https://www.aei.org/articles/the-state-of-al-qaeda-and-isis-around-the-world/