Analytic Memo 3: Goals of ISIS

by Dack Anderson, Lead Security Consultant

Image: Youssef Boudlal/Reuters. Published on September 1, 2014.

As part of my academic journey at Pikes Peak State College, I had the opportunity to study ESA4010: Terrorism Threat & Risk Analysis in 2022, a critical course that deepened my understanding of terrorism-related threats, emergency response strategies, and analytical methods. Under the guidance of Professor Woody Byrd, I conducted extensive research using structured assessment models to analyze whether ISIS remains a threat to the United States.

Building on this foundation, this article examines the historical trajectory of the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) and its evolving operational strategies. From its origins as an Al-Qa'ida affiliate to its declaration of a global caliphate, the group leveraged geopolitical instability to gain ground before facing military decline. Through structured analysis, I explore how ISIS’s leadership shaped its rise and fall, the implications of its ideological resilience, and the ongoing security challenges posed by its decentralized insurgency.

Key Findings

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL (also known as ISIS, Da'esh, or Da'ish), was a major terrorist organization between 2004 and 2019. It ingrained itself in Iraq and Syria by exploiting the tensions in Iraq and the Syrian conflict. It had a twofold goal: (1) Expansion of controlled territories to the borders of ancient Muslim caliphs and (2) Full implementation of strict sharia law. It was founded by Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi, who pledged the organization to Osama bin Laden of Al-Qa'ida. To put pressure on foreigners to leave Iraq, the group began attacking the U.S. Coalition members, Iraqi armed forces, and regular civilians. This also had the wanted effect of limiting popular support in Iraq for both the U.S. and the Iraqi government, and to allure new fighters and recruits. The combination of Sunni resistance and the Coalition surge in 2007 hampered the terrorist organization significantly. But in 2011, the Coalition forces pulled out of Iraq, and the Sunnis' dissatisfaction with the Shia-led administration, ISIL again took advantage of the situation and rose back to power. (National Counterterrorism Center Staff, 2015).

While gaining dominance under the new leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIL continue to expand its influence in Syria with a dummy organization called the al-Nusrah Front to cover its activities (Wang & Fan, 2015). Disagreements with the strategic plans for Syria led to a divorce between the group and Al-Qa'ida. As it continued to gain ground and built an affiliate network around the globe, in 2014, it unilaterally made the declaration of the founding of a new Muslim caliphate, achieving one of its primary goals. With this fame, it began attracting a large number of foreign fighters and sympathizers to help the caliphate's expansion. (National Counterterrorism Center Staff, 2015) (Glenn, C., et al., 2019). 

In 2016, ISIL/ISIS began to militarily decline and start to lose territory and resources. Al Baghdadi was killed in 2019 in a U.S. raid, yet the organization continues, though weakened, to this day with a global guerrilla insurgency led by an Iraqi national named Abdullah Qardash (Glenn, C., et al., 2019) (Drevon & Khalifa, 2022). 

Meaning of Findings 

From the research, one can determine the periods of growth and expansion in ISIL when it was led by the charismatic leaders al-Zarqawi and al-Baghdadi. As the group grew from a hierarchical terrorist organization to implementing more distant cell-oriented insurgency operations, the mission continued to remain the same, with its dedicated followers achieving a relatively short-lived caliphate in Syria and Iraq. 

Both objectives of bringing about a caliphate and establishing sharia law were achieved. The result of the success created opportunities for the group to market itself as a home for true Muslims, and many believing ISIL was justified in its actions against the "infidel" West, or disillusioned with their lives, did flock to the region. With the financial, military, and administrative growth, they began to expand outside the region and made disturbing impacts on foreign soil in places from West Africa to East Asia. The caliphate began to falter when the U.S.-led Coalition Forces were bolstered and lost the caliphate in 2019. But the organization itself remains intact due to its resiliency based on its ideological goals.

Assessment of Findings 

The primary thing noticed with this group is that it appears to take on the fervor of its leader. When the group has a stoic, pragmatic, dedicated leader, the organization strives and takes on the characteristics of the leader. An example of that is when al-Baghdadi took over and implemented barbaric practices that even made Al-Qa'ida take notice to the point that the union between the two groups was broken, and open hostilities began. Despite the terror that ensued, great gains did come under his leadership. 

Persuading those in the Islamic worldwide community who felt isolated and rejected with a message that captured their attention with a simplistic worldview shaped by the Qur’an was a skillful and effective plan. Though the majority of the world's Muslims want to live in peace, thousands who sympathize with the group's cause did and still do come to the Middle East or any of the eight countries that have safe havens for its cell teams, knowingly or unknowingly, by the citizenry. To stop ISIL from threatening the world again, a solution must be found that can stop this particularly violent jihadist ideology. And that has yet to be truly done. 

References: 

Drevon, J. & Khalifa, D. (2022, February 4). A Death In Idlib: The Killing of the Top ISIS Leader and Its Impact. International Crisis Group. Retrieved on September 25, 2022, from https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/death-idlib killing-top-isis-leader-and-its-impact 

Glenn, C., Rowan, M., Caves, J., and Nada, G. (2019, October 19). Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State. The Wilson Center. Retrieved September 18, 2022, from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state 

National Counterterrorism Center Staff. (2015). Terrorist Groups: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). National Counterterrorism Center: Counter Terrorism Guide. Retrieved on September 25, 2022, from https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/isil.html 

Wang, B. & Fan, B. (2015). Reflections on the Issue of ISIS, Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (in Asia). Shanghai International Studies University. Retrieved on September 25, 2022, from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/19370679.2015.12023267