Analytic Memo 1: Characteristics of ISIS

by Dack Anderson, Lead Security Consultant

Image: Katie Jone/WTSP-TV 10 Tampa Bay. Published on August 31, 2021.

As part of my academic journey at Pikes Peak State College, I had the opportunity to study ESA4010: Terrorism Threat & Risk Analysis in 2022, a critical course that deepened my understanding of terrorism-related threats, emergency response strategies, and analytical methods. Under the guidance of Professor Woody Byrd, I conducted extensive research using structured assessment models to analyze whether ISIS remains a threat to the United States.

Over the next few months, I will share segments of my research in bi-weekly posts, presenting insights on the structure, operations, recruitment strategies, financing, global presence, and evolving threat landscape of ISIS. This series will cover key topics such as historical milestones, tactical capabilities, intelligence strategies, and ISIS’s connections within global terror networks.

The project ultimately culminated in a final strategic assessment, offering a synthesized view of the risks posed by ISIS and the broader implications for national security. I invite professionals and peers to engage with these discussions, providing valuable perspectives contribute to a deeper understanding of counterterrorism strategies.

Let’s explore these complex topics together!

Key Findings

To determine if ISIS is still a threat, let's observe some present attributes of the terrorist group. The organization met its final military defeat in 2019 by the U.S.-led coalition. Though the extremist group's capacity has been massively reduced, they have committed attacks yearly even though they no longer hold any territory (Hamasaeed, 2022). Let's look at the organization's size, composition, and strength today.

Size: At its height in 2015, there were approximately 30,000 fighters (Picker, 2016). In a recent United Nations assessment, ISIS has only been able to retain between 6,000 and 10,000 fighters, down from 18,000 in 2019. This data means they have lost roughly two-thirds of their forces through combat actions or apprehension (Ajjoub, 2022).

Composition: At its height, ISIS was able to attract recruits from 85 countries around the world (Picker, 2016). But today, the constituents are primarily from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Russia (mainly predominant Muslim regions of the Northern Caucasus), Turkey, and Jordan (Bremmer, 2017). This group comprises the essence of Sunni jihadists who claim religious authority over all Muslims and that it's a ruling caliphate that pushes a strikingly violent ideology. What sets it apart from other terrorist groups is its savvy use of social media for fundraising and recruitment and its ability to quickly take advantage of regional instabilities (Mitch & Rhoades, 2022).

Strength: With the killing of ISIS leaders and the military defeat, how does one determine the status of the organization's power today? It has lost territory, equipment, and infrastructure in Iraq and Syria, and thousands of its members were either killed or captured. Yet, it has never officially declared or acknowledged defeat. Before its defeat, ISIS was in the process of transitioning to full guerrilla warfare and had gained significant expertise from its time in Iraq. This reveals another key characteristic of the organization, its ability to speedily adapt and restructure, transform its military strategy, and manage a financial bankroll of nearly $300 million to this day (Rumman, 2020). 

Meaning of Findings

It is evident that ISIS is still presently active, but not on a military level as before, due to the loss of the caliphate it had established in Iraq and Syria. At its height, the group was able to carry out terrorist attacks in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, and even America. Though its ideological influence still spreads throughout the world, the majority of the organization is now only mobile groups practicing desert guerrilla warfare, as thousands of its followers have been eliminated on the battlefield or detained in prison camps. Notwithstanding, the group still holds onto large financial means, and when not operating in small, hit-and-run tactics, the leadership continues to guide followers and sympathizers through social media and online messaging rather than running day-to-day operations.

Assessment of Findings

So far from what has been researched, the question of whether ISIS is still a threat is quite clear. The answer is a strong yes. ISIS may have been defeated soundly in the theatre of open warfare, but the intelligence and savviness of this terrorist organization should not be ignored. The group has not declared defeat and continues with open threats, especially to the United States. It generally operates in two sections: a smaller leadership group guiding the recruits and supporters and accomplishing more complex attacks; and a much larger core of decentralized cells following directives, conducting smaller raids, and handling the finances. With the largesse that the organization has gathered over the years and with the 2021 debacle of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan leaving billions of dollars of military equipment behind, ISIS is overall subdued... for now. It is biding its time waiting for the opportunity to retake lost territory and re-exert itself around the globe. The challenge today for the world is whether it can contain such a resilient, militant faction with its intelligence, influence, and sheer violence from growing again and wreaking havoc once more? 

References: 

Ajjoub, O. (2022, March 18). ISIS has a New Leader. It’s Important to Understand Their operational Capacity. Atlantic Council. Retrieved September 11, 2022, from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/isis-has-a-new-leader-its-important-to-understand-their-operational-capacity 

Bremmer, I. (2017, April 14). The Top 5 Countries Where ISIS Gets Its Foreign Recruits. Time. Retrieved September 11, 2022, from https://time.com/4739488/isis-iraq-syria-tunisia-saudi-arabia-russia/ 

Hamasaeed, S. (2022, July 28). ISIS is a Problem of Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. United States Institute of Peace. Retrieved September 11, 2022, from https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/07/isis-problem-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow 

Mitch, I. & Rhoades, A. (2022). The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization). Rand. Retrieved September 4, 2022, from https://www.rand.org/topics/the-islamic-state-terrorist-organization.html 

Picker, L. (2016, June 6). Where are ISIS's Foreign Fighters Coming From? National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved September 11, 2022, from https://www.nber.org/digest/jun16/where-are-isiss-foreign-fighters-coming 

Rumman, M. (2020, November). Analysis of strengths and weaknesses “after the collapse of the ISIS state”. The Future of ISIS: Strengths and Weaknesses Dynamics of the “Virtual Caliphate” and the Gap in Counterterrorism Strategies, 13-15. https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/amman/16943-20201214.pdf